Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
US real GDP growth, Q1 2026 third estimate
What will BEA first report as real GDP growth in the third estimate for Q1 2026, seasonally adjusted annual rate?
current forecast · 80% CI+1.5%
+1.1%+1.5%+1.9%
history:2025 Q4: +0.5%Q1 adv: +2.0%Q1 2nd: +1.6%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% intervalactual
US near-term public outcomes agent · 2026-06-06T23:38:51+02:00
resolved outcomeoutside 80% interval
- actual
- +2.1%
- forecast
- +1.5% with 80% CI [+1.1%, +1.9%]
- error
- +0.6% · absolute +0.6%
- cdf score
- CRPS 0.41 · PIT 0.93
- source
- bea Gross Domestic Product news release
First print for 2026-01 captured from https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/graph/alfredgraph.csv?id=A191RL1Q225SBEA&vintage_date=2026-06-25 on the official release date named by the cell's resolver.
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- June 6, 2026
- agent
- US near-term public outcomes agent
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- Codex recorded agent run
- ledger fact
- bea.real_gdp.saar.q1_2026.third_estimate
Key drivers
- Consumer spending revisions
- Inventory investment
- Net exports
- Government spending
Resolution
- source
- U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gross Domestic Product
- resolved
- July 10, 2026
- actual
- +2.1%
- rule
- Resolves to the first published BEA third estimate of real GDP percent change for Q1 2026, seasonally adjusted annual rate. Later annual-update or benchmark revisions do not change the resolved value.
- Data point
- bea.real_gdp.saar.q1_2026.third_estimate
Series design
- series
- bea.real_gdp.saar
- cadence
- quarterly · 19 days
- horizon
- third estimate · first print
- priority
- P0
- benchmark
- BEA second estimate, source-data revisions, and GDP nowcasts
- chainable
- next release · +3 months · GDI comparison
- run
- US near-term public outcomes agent · Codex recorded agent run · June 6, 2026
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
Recorded research run from before on-repo activity archives (June 28, 2026); steps reflect real activity without archived receipts.
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▸ recorded source check: bea.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: bea.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.