Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
TANF average monthly families, FY2027
How many families will receive TANF or SSP-MOE cash assistance in an average month of fiscal year 2027?
current forecast · 80% CI0.7M
0.6M0.7M0.9M
history:FY2019: 1.1MFY2021: 0.9MFY2023: 0.7MFY2024: 0.7M
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- prototype seed
- agent
- prototype seed
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- ledger fact
- acf.tanf.average_monthly_families.fy2027
Key drivers
- State work and diversion rules
- Block-grant funding pressure
- Low-income families with children
- Administrative take-up and sanctions
Resolution
- source
- ACF TANF caseload data
- expected
- June 30, 2028
- rule
- Resolves to the fiscal-year average number of families receiving TANF or Separate State Program Maintenance-of-Effort cash assistance in FY2027, in millions, using the first ACF TANF caseload table covering all FY2027 months.
- Data point
- acf.tanf.average_monthly_families.fy2027
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay
illustrative traceThis trace was authored from source context when the cell was created; the tool calls shown were not executed. Runs from June 28, 2026 onward replay archived activity from the public records.
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▸ illustrative step: acf.lookupauthored, not executed
▸ illustrative step: policyengine.simulateauthored, not executed
The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.